The Big Short Series | The Flood That Could Break the Market | Episode 2
In Episode 2 of The Big Short, we break down the real-time risks facing Dubai’s rental market. Every number, every trend we discuss comes straight from publicly available reports nothing hidden!
The Flood That Could Break Dubai’s Short Let Market
In the latest episode of The Big Short, AirDXB explores the growing risks facing Dubai’s real estate sector. We take a closer look at a looming flood of supply and what it could mean for investors, landlords and the future of the Dubai Real Estate market.
The Supply Surge: A Tidal Wave of Listings
Dubai is set to receive a significant influx of new units. In this episode, we discuss how this surge could destabilise pricing across the market. As highlighted in the video, overdevelopment in key neighbourhoods is leading to an oversupply, which may ultimately reduce long term rental rates and overall returns for landlords in the long term market.
Off Plan Overload: 68.9% and Rising
In the first quarter of 2025, a remarkable 68.9% of all sales were off plan, according to Cavendish Maxwell. This means nearly three quarters of the market is being driven by investors rather than end users. These are not families purchasing homes to live in. These are units that need to be rented or resold.
The challenge is that they are accumulating. While a small number of buyers are waiting to move into their properties once handed over, most are not. With many handovers delayed and new launches continuing at pace, pressure is mounting to generate income from these properties. This is especially urgent as ongoing costs such as service charges and mortgage payments begin to take their toll.
New Listings Climbing, Renewals Dominating
According to Cavendish Maxwell, 70% of rental contracts in the first quarter of 2025 were renewals. That means only 30% were new leases. For new landlords, particularly those relying on long term tenants, this makes the landscape extremely challenging.
When we look at platforms like Property Finder and Bayut, the number of rental listings is increasing. However, the number of renters is not growing at the same pace. While Dubai continues to welcome more than one thousand new residents each day, many of them are not moving into apartments in popular areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Downtown or Dubai Marina. Instead, they are living in staff accommodation or shared housing. The rise in rental demand does not reflect the rise in available units.
Empty Apartments, Rising Costs
This is the real pressure point. Thousands of investor owned apartments are sitting empty. With no rental income coming in, landlords are still required to pay service charges and mortgage instalments. With fewer long term leases being signed, many property owners are turning to short term rentals to generate income while they wait.
As one of the agents in our referral programme told us:
“Although some of our investors want long term tenants, they are struggling to find them and are using short let to generate income in the meantime.”
At AirDXB, we are seeing many of these investors continue with short term rentals even after their initial pivot. They are finding the flexibility and returns more sustainable in the current market.
Our Referral Programme
AirDXB is actively encouraging landlords to explore short term rental solutions. We offer full support, personalised strategy and financial incentives.
We are currently offering AED 3,000 to anyone who refers a new client to our short let management service.
The message is clear
If your apartment is sitting vacant, do not wait for the perfect long term tenant to appear. Let your property start earning now.
Contact Our Expert Advisors
📚 Official Reports & Data Sources🟢 Khaleej Times Headline: Dubai population to hit 4 million in 2025🔗 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/duba...
🟢 The National News
Key Data Cited:
- Off-plan Oqood registrations down 8% QoQ in Q1 2025, but up 37.5% YoY (AED 77.3B in investments)
- Secondary ready home transactions: 12,396 in Q1 2025, down 7% QoQ but up 5.8% YoY (AED 33B)
- April 2025 Off-plan vs Ready Sales: 11,625 vs 5,902 → 66.3% vs 33.7%
🔗 https://www.thenationalnews.com/busin...🔗 https://www.thenationalnews.com/busin...
🟢 Cavendish Maxwell
Key Data Cited:
- 73,000 new residential units expected in 2025
- 170,000+ units under construction, scheduled for handover by 2029
- 70% of rental contracts in Q1 2025 were renewals
🟢 DXB Interact
Key Data Cited:
- 66,208 units launched YTD (2025)
- Q1 2025 Sales Breakdown:
- Off-plan: AED 77.3B
- Ready homes: AED 33B
- Off-plan share: 68.9% of total transactions
🟢 Property Monitor (via Dubai Eye 103.8, Feb 2025)
Key Insight: Launch pace accelerated to one every 12–13 hours
• Dubai Property Prices Dip -- Just a Blip?
🟢 Allsopp & Allsopp – Q1 2025 Report
Key Insights:
- 24,000 units handed over in Q1
- Apartment letting volume ↓ 31% YoY
- Rental transaction volume ↓ 28% YoY
- Tenant registration ↓ 33% YoY
🔗 https://www.allsoppandallsopp.com
🟢 ValuStrat – Q1 2025 Market CommentaryKey Insights:
- Dubai recorded a net population increase of 170,478 people in 2024, averaging fewer than 500 new residents per day — though at times this surged to 1,000 new residents per day.
- Population growth is a key driver of rising housing demand across the emirate.
🔗 https://valustrat.com/pages/housing-d...
🟢 Betterhomes – Q1 2025 Report
Key Insight: Rental listings in Dubai increased by 54% YoY
🔗 https://www.bhomes.com/en/blog/market...
🟢 Savills Research (via Economy Middle East)
Key Insight: Off-plan accounted for 69% of Q1 2025 sales
More insights
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